U.S. Soy Analysis

Forecast for 2023/24 U.S. Soy Supply Tightens as USDA Lowers Acreage

Traders were surprised Friday when the U.S. Department of Agriculture shifted soybean acres down to 83.5 million. One market analyst explains what happened and what buyers need to be doing.

In its June Acreage Report, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) shifted acres planted to soybeans down to 83.5 million from the 87.51 million acres reported in the March Planting Intentions report. 

“As we analyze the numbers released by USDA, it’s important to step back, reflect, and look at the forest through the trees,” said U.S. Soybean Export Council CEO Jim Sutter. 

The U.S. is a supplier of high-quality, sustainable U.S. Soy that international customers can rely on, thanks to the commitment of our farmers and the world-class value chain. 

Market analyst and President of The ProExporter Network, Marty Ruikka noted that wheat has had a really good year with 50 million acres planted, up 4.2 million acres from the year prior. 

This kind of explains why corn and soy are where they are, he said.  

States that saw the biggest positive change from last year were South Dakota and Minnesota, but that’s due only to the prevent plant that occurred last year. In almost all the other soybean growing states, acreage planted to soybeans went down, and corn went up.  

But why? 

“We had near perfect planting weather in the Corn Belt, with the exception of North Dakota,” Ruikka said. “In the U.S. when the weather is perfect, farmers tend to plant more corn than soybeans because the yield gain is more significant.  

“On the contrary, if there’s difficulty getting the corn crop planted, more acres go to soybeans.” 

U.S. Soy farmer Stan Born from Lovington, Illinois, said he had perfect planting conditions and farmers near him started planting about April 10. He noted ground temperatures stayed warm, and emergence was good and even. 

“We received some nice rain in early May but throughout the month, we ended up with about half the precipitation than normal,” he shared. “This really slowed crop progress. ... We are finally getting some relief now. I think we’ve lost some of the top end yields, but we are thankful to have good precipitation now that will carry us into July.” 

Another U.S. Soy farmer, Mike McCranie from Claremont, South Dakota, had a very different planting experience. 

“We had the third most snowfall on record,” McCranie said. “We didn’t start planting until May 15.” 

He described the weather as going straight from winter to summer with little-to-no spring. 

“We had no precipitation until June 10,” he said. “Corn stands were good, but we had a hard time getting moisture with soybeans. We planted soybeans right up until June 10, which is the final date for crop insurance.” 

One thing that Ruikka pointed out is that farmers have planted nearly all the acreage in production with little-to-no prevent plant acres. 

As farmers maximize acres, where do they look for yield gains and advances to come from? 

Both Born and McCranie agree yield gains will come from improved genetics, adoption of biologicals and advances in machine learning, both driverless tractors and variable-rate technology. 

“Genetics will continue to deliver new benefits,” Born said. “There’s a lot of new technology in the pipeline that will benefit us, particularly for corn. Then biologicals are going to help us release more nutrients and get them into the plant in a sustainable fashion.”  

Improved genetics is what helps U.S. Soy farmers deliver top-end yields and consistent quality, even in challenging conditions. 

As we look at next year, Mother Nature is always giving us a surprise, Ruikka said. 

“Having absolutely perfect planting weather is a surprise,” he said. “When was the last time that happened? I think next year, we’ll return to more normal acres.” 

In the short-term, soybean buyers will need to consider deploying risk protection strategies, and look at buying supplies early in the marketing year. 

“I am reminded that collaboration ... shared learning and partnerships, are critical to create impact at scale,” Sutter said. “In supporting our global stakeholders’ efforts, U.S. Soy’s vision is to provide global nutrition in many different forms and to do this with climate-smart, sustainable U.S. Soy grown by our farmers and made available through our world-class export supply chain. 

“This product and all of USSEC’s services support progress for people and communities around the world. Our team and volunteers are excited to engage in conversations and collaborations on nutrition security, environmental sustainability, and economic growth.”

Watch the full webinar for the complete breakdown and all the details. The webinar is available to watch or listen in: Bahasa, English, Chinese, French, Japanese, Korean, Spanish, and Vietnamese. 

This story was partially funded by U.S. Soy farmers, their checkoff and the soy value chain. 

We look forward to continuing the conversation on USSEC Linkedin.