U.S. Soy Analysis

Market Anticipates Big U.S. Soybean Crop, Creates Buying Opportunities

Big U.S. soybean yields allow for competitive pricing and improved global buying opportunities, shared Tanner Ehmke of CoBank during the U.S. Soy Analysis of the September World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates Report. Ehmke who serves as Lead Economist for Grains and Oilseeds sat down with USSEC's CEO Jim Sutter to discuss the report in detail and highlight other factors at play. He said even though the U.S. Department of Agriculture projected U.S. soybean production down by 3 million bushels to 4.586 billion bushels, it's still a really large crop. While U.S. crush and exports were left unchanged, analysts forecast ending stocks down 10 million from last month at 550 million bushels.

When it comes to global supply of soybeans, Ehmke said there's ample supply. He shared "world soybean production is climbing faster than world consumption," with USDA estimating that world production will exceed 429 million metric tons this marketing year.

He explained that there are a couple underlying assumptions to the large global production numbers, a few of which include:

• A record crop in the United States at 4.586 billion bushels if realized.
• Record crops in South America.

However, Ehmke cautioned it is very, very early to put numbers to the South American crop with much confidence. He shared that it's possible La Niña could cause problems in South America along with the dry conditions in Brazil. He also shared that farm bankruptcies in Brazil are up 500%, and farmers will be evaluating the profit potential of this year's soybean crop.

For all the details, watch the brief recording which is available in: Bahasa Indonesia, simplified Chinese, English, French, Japanese, Korean, Spanish, and Vietnamese.

Note: Some translations may have a slightly delayed start. Feel free to click forward if you desire.

We look forward to continuing the conversation on USSEC Linkedin.

This story was partially funded by U.S. Soy farmers, their checkoff and the soy value chain.